A profound political realignment is underway in Nigeria, one that is reshaping the nation’s democratic architecture. The steady migration of governors, lawmakers, and power brokers from opposition parties—primarily the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)—to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is more than mere political opportunism. It is a systemic shift that analysts warn could fundamentally weaken the checks and balances essential for a healthy democracy, raising the specter of a de facto one-party state.
The APC’s consolidation of power is accelerating at a remarkable pace. With the recent and imminent defections of Governors Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), and the earlier move of Agbu Kefas (Taraba), the APC is poised to control an overwhelming 26 of Nigeria’s 36 states. This grants the party not just executive dominance but also immense influence over the state-level assemblies and the national political narrative. The defections are often framed as a strategic alignment with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope” agenda and a rejection of internal crises within the PDP. As Mutfwang’s adviser stated, joining the APC is seen as the “safest decision with the least risk.”
Read also: Governor Mutfwang defects from PDP to APC
However, this narrative of voluntary alignment is contested. Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan’s revelation of persistent pressure from the Presidency and National Assembly to defect points to a more coercive dimension. It suggests a deliberate strategy of co-optation, where the immense resources and patronage powers of the federal center are used to dismantle opposition strongholds. This creates a “bandwagon effect,” where the fear of political isolation and lack of access to federal projects pushes even reluctant actors to join the ruling party.
The consequences of this convergence extend far beyond party membership rosters. Political analyst Peter Faniyi identifies the core danger: the erosion of accountability. In a vibrant multi-party system, the opposition serves as a watchdog, scrutinizing policy, exposing corruption, and offering voters a credible alternative. When one party controls nearly all subnational governments, the legislature, and the presidency, this critical function diminishes. Dissent is internalized within the party, where it can be more easily managed or silenced, rather than being a public, institutional check. The ruling party’s own Senator Adeniyi Adegbonmire boldly declared there is “no serious opposition,” a statement that underscores both the current reality and the peril it represents.
The voices of everyday citizens, like civil servant Joshua Oladapo and banker Daniel Adeyemi, capture the grassroots anxiety. Their concern that “nobody is checking them” speaks to a fundamental democratic principle: power must be contested to remain responsible. Without a strong opposition, the government faces less electoral pressure to perform, potentially leading to policy complacency, greater impunity, and a disconnect from the populace. This isn’t merely theoretical; studies of dominant-party systems in other democracies often show a correlation with increased corruption and reduced policy innovation over time.
Read also: Beyond Bello Turji’s exposé: The high cost of insecurity, PDP governors and the defection bug
Looking ahead to the 2027 elections, the landscape appears heavily tilted. The APC is mobilizing for President Tinubu’s re-election from a position of unprecedented structural advantage. The opposition’s challenge is existential: it must rebuild not just its leadership but a compelling national vision that can counteract the gravitational pull of the ruling party’s resources. The defections represent a short-term tactical victory for the APC but pose a long-term strategic risk for Nigerian democracy. The ultimate question is whether political survival for individual elites is being prioritized over the systemic health of a competitive political space. The nation is at a crossroads, watching as its multi-party system undergoes a stress test that will define its democratic maturity for years to come.
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